Rate Lock Advisory

Thursday, June 21th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory with stocks showing early losses. The major stock indexes are in selling mode with the Dow down 115 points and the Nasdaq down 9 points. The bond market is currently up 10/32 (2.90%), but weakness late yesterday is going to keep this morning’s mortgage rates very close to Wednesday’s morning level. Some lenders revised pricing higher before the end of the day yesterday. Therefore, if you saw an upward revision to rates, you should see a similar improvement this morning.

10/32


Bonds


30 yr - 2.90%

115


Dow


24,541

9


NASDAQ


7,771

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Low


Neutral


Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Neither of this morning’s economic releases carry much significance. Last week’s unemployment numbers were posted at 8:30 AM ET. They showed that 218,000 news claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was an increase from the previous week’s revised 215,000 initial filings, hinting that the employment sector was slightly softer than the previous week. Although, with this being just a weekly snapshot, there was not enough of a change to draw much attention or affect this morning’s rates.

Low


Positive


Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) from the Conference Board

May's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) closed out this week’s calendar at 10:00 AM ET. The Conference Board announced a 0.2% increase, falling short of the 0.4% that was expected. These indicators attempt to predict economic activity over the next several months. Since they came in weaker than analysts were predicting, we can consider the data favorable for mortgage rates. The bad news is that this is also not a very important report, so we have seen little impact on today’s rates.

Medium


Unknown


Bond Trends

Tomorrow has nothing of relevance scheduled. If we see a noticeable move in mortgage rates it likely will be a result of heavy stock buying or selling. It is also important to watch the 10-year Treasury Note yield as we are testing 2.92%. A move and close above that level would be bad news for mortgage rates. Failure to break above is very good news and could lead to a downward trend in both yields and rates. However, recent history shows repeated attempts and failures to move well below the 2.92% - 2.99% range. Until we do, it is a fairly safe bet that mortgage rates will remain close to where they are currently.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.